Tropical Development Likely In Atlantic In The Week Ahead, According To National Hurricane Center Rob Shackelford September 14, 2025 at 2:40 PM 42 After a relatively quiet peak of hurricane season, we now have our eyes on an area in the eastern Atlantic for potential tropical development.
- - Tropical Development Likely In Atlantic In The Week Ahead, According To National Hurricane Center
Rob Shackelford September 14, 2025 at 2:40 PM
42
After a relatively quiet peak of hurricane season, we now have our eyes on an area in the eastern Atlantic for potential tropical development.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring this system closely as the odds continue to increase for development mid-to-late week.
Here's What You
The large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is currently passing through the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Although dry and stable air is expected to hinder development over the next day or so, pockets of more favorable conditions could allow for gradual development thereafter.
This system will likely become a tropical depression by the middle to end of the upcoming week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Although there is still some uncertainty, if this system were to become a tropical storm and receive a name, it would be Gabrielle.
What's Been Going On?
If you are wondering if this hurricane season has been relatively quiet, you are not wrong. It has been.
Despite warm waters across the Atlantic, sinking air, wind shear and dry air have been stuffing out most storms.
The only real exception to this is Hurricane Erin, which took advantage of a brief period of low shear and less dry air to grow from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in just over 24 hours. This shows that having warm oceans is just a piece of the hurricane pie.
Would you believe the last named storm was back at the end of August? Tropical Storm Fernand has that honor, fizzling out at the end of August.
In fact, "below average" has been the name of the game for 2025 so far. We should have seen eight named storms by this time. We are only at six.
For hurricanes, we should have seen three, but Erin stands alone at this time. However, since Erin reached major hurricane strength, we are average for the number of major hurricanes expected at this time.
What Does This Mean Going Forward?
Just because hurricane season hasn't lived up to the hype so far, that doesn't mean we're out of the woods yet.
Last year, hurricanes Helene and Milton occurred after peak hurricane season, and we all still remember the devastation these storms caused.
Only two years have not seen a named storm form in September: 1879 and 1890.
However, I doubt this will happen. This storm could be the start of the Atlantic Basin beginning to wake up.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master's degree from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
Source: "AOL General"
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